Lisa Horne – Pigskin Grind

Florida v Georgia: Did DJ Lagway’s Injury Derail the Lane Train?

JACKSONVILLE, Fl.—Never underestimate the emotions of a tormented football fan. Especially in the SEC.

On Saturday, Florida entered its rivalry game against Georgia for the 102nd time. This time, the Gators were 16-point underdogs to the Bulldogs. All signs pointed to a beatdown by Georgia and a renewed interest in testing the combustibility of Gator head coach Billy Napier’s skivvies.

Would Napier get canned if Florida lost? Would Napier get canned if the Gators made the loss respectable? Would Napier get canned even if the Gators won?

Billy Napier credit: Brian Estes Photos

OK, to spare any more suspense… would, no wait….will… Napier get 86’d?

So far, Napier is safe. In just his third season at Florida, he has not had the opportunity to coach a team with all of his recruits. The injury bug has also hit the team hard this season.

Those extenuating circumstances could be enough to keep his job for another year.

A contingent of Florida’s fan base is not thrilled about that. These fans are impatient. These fans want change. These fans do not like the direction in which the team is heading.

What ever happened to the retention standard of “four years in” before talking about coaching changes?

How much a current coach’s buyout clause is worth (Napier’s is $25.67 million if he is terminated after the 2024 season) compiled with the quality of coaches available to hire are the usual deciding factors in terminating a coach’s contract.

But there may be a another reason why some schools are not waiting four or five years to make a coaching change.

The Gators are in serious danger of not getting bowl eligible with six wins. A road trip at No. 5 Texas [gulp] plus two home games against No. 14 LSU and No. 16 Ole Miss [gulp] await. Realistically, the Gators’ hope of a bowl bid lies on their date with a 1-8 pissed off Florida State on November 30.

A loss to the Seminoles changes everything.

Missing postseason play hurts a team’s recruiting. And its booster donations.

Some donors may refrain from digging into their fat wallets when a team is bass fishing instead of playing in New Year’s Six bowl. That could impact future NIL collectives’ reserves, aka money to lure potential recruits.

“Donor-driven NIL collectives will make up 80% of all NIL dollars spent in college football this season,” according to On3.com’s report.

Two Florida schools have the Top 15 NIL collectives. The University of Florida is not one of those schools. Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri, Texas A&M, Alabama and Arkansas are among the Top 15.

Money talks. Mediocrity walks.

The word on the mean streets of Gainesville is that Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin is coveted by many green, scaly-skinned fans.

The Kiffin supporters, aka Kiff-ettes, want to book the Lane Train and ride off into the sunset with him and his mastery of trolling, deep balls and trick plays. Of course, that would leave another Kiffin-coached team scorned.

Hell hath no fury, eh Ole Miss? Tennessee? USC?

Anyway, all Florida had to do was lose (big) to Georgia to get the Lane Train rolling down the tracks. This seemed like an easy task at hand. Again, the Gators were 16-point underdogs. Cue the train conductor.

Piece. Of. Cake.

But like everything Florida this year, the Gators are an enigma.

Midway through the second quarter, Florida was up 10-3. The Lane Train talk had subsided.

DJ Lagway credit: Brian Estes Photos

Then true freshman sensation quarterback DJ Lagway was carted off the field after a “significant” hamstring injury, according to Napier. The oxygen got sucked out of the stadium—well, at least half of it—faster than a hot dog getting shot out of a cannon.

DJ Lagway credit: Brian Estes Photos

But wait. The Gators scored a touchdown and extended their lead 13-6.

Maybe…?

credit: Brian Estes Photos

Nah.

Florida could not get its offense rolling under third-string redshirt freshman Aidan Warner.

The playcalling was more than safe for the Yale transfer. It was bubble wrapped—a lot of hand-offs, an occasional deep throw and some short, play actions that got blown up by Georgia’s defenders.

Midway through the fourth quarter, Florida, down 20-13, willed itself down the field and into the red zone after a hands-to-the-face penalty by Georgia linebacker Damon Wilson II. A subsequent holding call by Florida negated that gift.

Of course.

And then, a November miracle, albeit temporary, happened. Florida’s Ja’Kobi Jackson waltzed into the endzone, after a whiff by Daniel Harris, and the game was tied up 20-20 with 7:29 left in regulation.

Everything after that touchdown was just awful for Gator fans.

Or was it?

Therein lies the dilemma for every football fan that wants a coaching change. Are you happy for the win, especially in a rivalry game, or are you happy for the loss and a (possible) change of leadership?

The end does not justify the means, does it? It is like an author of a novel winning an award for “how not to write a novel.” Do you really celebrate this?

For Gator fans, going 11-14 in the last two years is cringy. Currently at 4-4, things are not okey-dokey in Gainesville.

They are inky-stinky.

In week six, starting quarterback Graham Mertz had a career-ending knee injury (ACL) after he threw for a touchdown giving the Gators a 10-0 lead over the Tennessee Volunteers. The Gators would lose that game in overtime, 23-17.

Two weeks later, Lagway went out with a hamstring injury when the Gators were up 13-6. The Gators eventually lost on Saturday, 34-20.

credit: Brian Estes Photos

“I mean, [it] never comes down to just one play,” Napier said in his post-game interview.

“We probably played 180 plays out there today and there were multiple opportunities for us to get it done.”

Now on his third starting quarterback, sympathy for Napier abounds as he prepares for the Texas Longhorns. Yet, he is focused on supporting Warner and the team as they limp to Austin.

And what about getting “snakebit” by injuries?

Graham Mertz credit: Brian Estes Photos

“No, I don’t believe in… that,” Napier said.

“Always been injuries in this game. Every team in the country has injuries. One thing I can say is we built a roster that has some competitive depth and that’s proved to be beneficial.

You play in this league, the level of competition, the explosive players, height, length, and speed of the game, physicality of this game, you’re always going to need depth.”

A coach that does not repine on injuries?

That is refreshing as hell.

A coach who does not embrace moral victories?

Hip hip, hooray!

A coach that does not believe any one play costs a team a game?

Priceless.

The calls for “all aboard” the Lane Train have quieted.

For now.

Lagway’s injury may have been the final nail in Florida’s coffin. But it may also have given the under-construction “Legend of Napier” new meaning.

And life.

UPDATE: Lagway’s injury does not appear to be as serious as once thought. At a press conference Monday, Napier made these comments:

“The good news is we’ve had positive information on that front. That is the positive there. We do think that injury is less significant. We do think there’s a pathway for recovery and a return. We did find that out yesterday evening. So a lot of good on that front.

So less significant than we anticipated, and he’s been doing well so far this morning. We have not completely ruled him out, and I think a lot of that will be to be determined as we move our way throughout the week. So that’s a good thing for all involved and certainly for DJ.”

2024 College Football: Seven Scary Freshmen to Keep Your Eyes on in the SEC

It is not even Halloween and already college football fans from certain SEC schools are ostensibly making plans to go bass fishing in late December or early January.

The SEC is scary enough every season but 2024 … hoo boy! There are going to be some spectacular train wrecks every Saturday.

photo courtesy of Back to the Future

Have you seen Florida’s 2024 schedule? [gulp]

Forget chomp chomp. It is time to clutch pearl necklaces.

Usually, the SEC is The Holy Grail of combat zones—apparently Missouri got a hall pass this season—and like to eat its own. But because of transfer portal-loving players and hot seat head coaches, things have gotten even more combative in the SEC.

The Big Ten finally decided to flex its muscle and become a black-and-blue conference and suddenly, the SEC lost some Cowbell.

Fear not, SEC fans. Everything looks just fine. For some schools.

True freshmen are now threatening upperclassmen’s reps with the 1s and 2s in practice. Coaches are doing this because who wants to lose their 5-star player to the transfer portal because of lack of playing time or a fired/transferred coach?

Am I right, Aggie fans?

With college football coming to your city within the next two weeks, we take a look at some incoming freshmen who probably will not be sitting on the sidelines holding clipboards or play-calling signs with Beyonce’s face.

These grown men are my chosen few who should be playing right away in the SEC. Perhaps even starting.

Whether it be in specific down-and-yardage plays, special packages (come on, we all love the jumbo package!) or even just as back-ups at skilled positions, these warriors have the right stuff.

photo courtesy of Robinson family

Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia

The SEC loves to brag about its defenses. Okay, last year… not so great. (Yes, SEC fans, Rutgers had better D than the Tide.) There were a lot of discipline issues with a few *cough* teams.

Georgia, who was ranked No. 9 in total defense last season, has been very proactive in avoiding a secondary fall-off due to attrition. Head coach Kirby Smart’s “go big or go home” attitude was validated with the addition of Robinson.

The top-ranked cornerback of the 2024 class, this freshman was ranked second nationally, overall. In fact, he rated a perfect 100 score on 247Sports.com.

He runs a 4.5 in the 40 and has a 36-inch vertical leap. He’s comfortable in man-to-man coverage (uh-oh, Texas) and has a favorite hobby: making picks. He is a menace in the backfield and we cannot wait to watch him pick-6 a few passers.

photo courtesy of GatorsBreakDown

LJ McCray, DL, Florida

McCray was the No. 2 defensive lineman and No. 10 overall recruit. Will he get playing time? Maybe. It all depends on how scorched head coach Billy “Hot Seat” Napier’s skivvies get during the season.

The biggest question mark with most freshmen linemen is that—unlike most skilled position players—they tend to need at least a year of development. His position coach will probably need to tweak his footwork and correct any technique deficiencies.

But this guy is a beast (6-6, 260 lbs and 79-inch wingspan!) at stuffing the run and an absolute nightmare for any quarterback who chances more than two seconds in the pocket. He has that Junior Seau gift of anticipating the play and leveling the ball carrier. Or passer.

Bonus: can we talk about his name? Prediction: His nickname will be Cray Cray McCray. Pass the popcorn.

photo courtesy of AuburnObserver

Cam Coleman, WR, Auburn

This 5-star receiver decommitted from Texas A&M and made Hugh Freeze’s Christmas a lot more merrier when he signed with Auburn in December. Coleman was rated the top receiver (ESPN) in the country and No. 6 overall prospect.

He does need to bulk up a bit (6-3, 188 lbs) which could help him get more push off the blocks, but his route-running is top-notch. He creates great separation so his yards-after-catch should be eye-popping. He regularly practices with the 1s so his odds of seeing significant action early in the games—not just during garbage time—are good.

Coleman also played basketball so his jumping ability will be a factor on corner fades or Hail Marys. (Are you listening to me, Coach?)

How good is this dude? He had four catches for 92 yards in Auburn’s spring game and was a finalist for Alabama’s Mr. Football Award.

Boom.

photo courtesy of GatorCountry

DJ Lagway, QB, Florida

The rich keep getting richer in Gainesville. Alas, if only they knew how to enhance those investments.

The 6-3, 241 lbs, 5-star prospect Lagway is a prototype athletic quarterback. At 19 years old, he has more maturity than most true freshmen.

Lagway set a “Texas class 6A single-season record for touchdown passes all while leading the program to its best record in over 60 years,” per 247Sports.

Lagway was an early enrollee and was quite impressive in spring camp. He, not projected starter Graham Mertz, was the first quarterback to handle the offense.

“He’s made impressive growth,” Napier told GatorCountry. Napier noted his improvement on reads and ball control as key factors in his growth. Technique such as foot work—a lifesaver while in the pocket— has also been cleaned up.

“DJ has a cannon for an arm because he’ll launch it,” added tight end Arlis Boardingham.

While he is expected to back up Mertz, his escapability and ability to extend plays may remind fans of Tim Tebow. Gator fans may be campaigning for him to start if Florida struggles offensively.

photo courtesy of rivals.com

Jaylen Mbakwe, CB, Alabama

How fast is this cornerback? He ran a 10.46 in the 100-meter dash in high school.

It’s a good thing he’s fast because the Tide’s secondary took a major hit losing Kool-Aid McKistry, Terrion Arnold and Caleb Downs. Mbakwe may be called up early to shore up the defense.

At 5-11, 192 lbs, Mbakwe was ranked 12th nationally and 2nd at his position. While Alabama always has talent waiting in the wings, this season will look and feel different.

The Tide added USC’s Domani Jackson via the transfer portal but can we just pause and reflect on what the Trojans’ D looked like last year?

OK, good feeling gone.

photo courtesy of TDAlabamaMag

Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama

Williams was ranked 3rd at his position, 8th overall nationally.

I could go on and on about how much I am crushin’ on him but I’ll leave you with this little tidbit: Williams had 4,600 all-purpose yards and 65 touchdowns at his high school’s final seasons.

Play. Him. Now.

photo courtesy of Yahoo!

Walker White, QB, Auburn

Time to get excited Tiger fans. The next coming of Cam Newton has arrived on the Plains. White is a big, strong athletic runner at 6-3, 220 lbs. He has a fearless quality about him—running up the middle to him is akin to picking roses in a field of quicksand; he finds the sweet spots and avoids the traps.

White will be working on accuracy and touch consistency when he is in the pocket. In other words, he inner-channels his Brett Favre. But with some serious reps and confidence-building wide-outs, White will make Auburn fans smile again.

His real strength will be throwing on the run or play-actions but do not discount OC Derrick Nix designing blasts or power running plays for him on short-yardage situations. Perhaps he will be brought in for special packages.

Can you say Wildcat?

At Little Rock Christian Academy, White threw for 2, 282 yards, 29 TDs, 8 INTs and rushed for 346 yards and 9 TDs.

Feed him the ball, Coach.

College Football: Week Zero (yes, that is a thing) Games and Predictions

Nobody knows nothin’.

You’ve heard that before but nowhere is that truer than in predicting winners and losers in the first week of college football.

It is a crap shoot. It is a forage into unknown waters. Go ahead, dip your toes in the water. Circling dorsal fins be damned, you still dive in.

Back in the day, college football’s opening week was a lot of cupcakes getting destroyed by a lot of heavyweights. Thankfully, we are starting to see more “interesting” matchups in week zero. Surrounded by fluffy, frosted cupcakes.

Back to the interesting games, though.

OK, not really. Most of the games stink. But it is college football and we are going to bask in all of its glory. And gore.

Naturally, there will be an upset. Or two.

Who can forget Appalachian State’s epic upset of Michigan in 2007? After all, this is for what we, the college football fans, full of merriment and schadenfreude, live. Complete and utter chaos raining down on college football’s landscape.

May the team with the least amount of mistakes and SNAFUs win.

Nevada at New Mexico State

This one will be entertaining. But not for the reasons you think. Nevada has a total of six returning starters: two on offense, four on defense.

New Mexico State is breaking in a new coach (Jerry Kill of Minnesota fame) and its roster depth includes walk-ons. It only has two starters on its offense as well.

On paper, this looks like a low-scoring game or a high-scoring game, depending on which units show up to play. A true feast for the college football fan awaits. First team to 10 (or 50) points, wins.

Winner: Nevada

Austin Peay at Western Kentucky

The Hilltoppers will have an inexperienced offense taking on Austin Peay, an FCS team. What does that mean?

Quarterback Bailey Zappe was the heart of Western Kentucky’s offense. Zappe (New England Patriots) and Offensive Coordinator Zach Kittley (Texas Tech) are both gone. While there are excellent reports on quarterback Austin Reed, this game will have a lot mistakes and mental errors.

Note: this 9:00 a.m. game will be competing against FOXSports’ 9:30 a.m. broadcast of Nebraska v Northwestern in Ireland.

Winner: Western Kentucky

Nebraska v Northwestern (Dublin, Ireland)

Nebraska fans should have their gastroenterologists on speed dial in case their ulcers flare up earlier than usual.

The Cornhuskers have only won two of their last five season openers. That statistic by itself is not much to chew on but it is a symptom of something more ominous—Nebraska has also not had a winning system since 2016.

Northwestern has won three of their last five season openers. Although Nebraska is a 12.5 point favorite, I’m calling for the Wildcat upset here.

Winner: Northwestern

Idaho State at UNLV

UNLV should have this game under control by the third quarter. Idaho State is an FCS school and while there are some terrific FCS programs capable of pulling an upset every week, Idaho State is not at the elite level.

Winner: UNLV

UConn at Utah State

This is a very dangerous game for Jim Mora’s Utah State. The Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama the following week. Will Utah State be looking ahead? Count on it, especially when facing a team like UConn.

The Huskies have won four games in three years and the last time it beat a Power 5 team was in 2016 (Virginia). They have only beaten three Group of Five teams in that same time period. Can you spell T-R-A-P?

Utah State is favored by 27.5 points. The Aggies should win by that much but it is week one and anything can happen.

Winner: Utah State (?)

Wyoming at Illinois

Wyoming has eight returning starters, four on each side of the ball. True, we do not know much yet but we do know what a lot of opportunity for improvement means: rebuilding mode.

Illinois has 13 returning starters. Despite last year’s 5-7 season, the Fighting Illini pulled off three major upsets (Nebraska -7, Penn State -24 and Minnesota -14). Ilinois is a favorite (-11) and head coach Bret Bielema will have his guys ready.

Winner: Illinois

Duquesne at Florida State

Remember when we could count on the Seminoles to annihilate its non-conference opponents? Now they are dependable as a wet book of matches.

Last year the Seminoles lost to FCS’s Jacksonville State 20-17. Ouch. The Seminoles struggled to beat Samford (not Stanford) in 2018 (36-26) and lost to Boise State (36-31) in 2019’s season opener.

Florida State has been playing flaky football for at least five years despite rosters riddled with elite players. This should be a blow out by the first half but do not be shocked if Duquesne is still hanging around in the third quarter.

Winner: Florida State

Charlotte at Florida Atlantic

In the last five years, the Owls have had two 11-win seasons. This program is capable and trending up. Head coach Willie Taggert has a lot of veterans returning (14!) and FAU has won its last three meetings with Charlotte.

But Charlotte tends to play up to the level of its opponents. Last year it lost to Duke by three points, Middle Tennessee State by three and Illinois by 10. The Owls are favored by 7.5 points and that sounds about right, especially since the 49ers have to travel to Boca Raton.

Winner: FAU

Florida A&M at North Carolina

This may be the perfect game for the Tar Heels to prove they belong in the Big Ten or SEC. The ACC may be relatively safe from conference expansion for now but things may become very unstable in a few years. Or next week.

Despite a reloaded offense with some unproven skill players, I expect North Carolina to keep this game out of reach from FAMU.

Winner: North Carolina

North Texas at UTEP

This game may be among the day’s most competitive match-ups. North Texas is favored by two points in this interstate rivalry. The battle should be tightly contested and an overtime thriller is a definite possibility. We can dream, can’t we?

The underdog is “5-2 with three straight upsets,” according to Phil Steele. UTEP for the mild upset?

UTEP for the mild upset.

Winner: UTEP

Vanderbilt at Hawaii

A non-stop, direct flight from Nashville to Honolulu is over eight hours. The typical flight from Nashville to Honolulu is more like 12-13 hours total flight time. Vandy is going to be exhausted on game day.

But we have a plot twist….

Hawai’i has only six starters returning and is playing in a temporary stadium that holds 9,000 butts in seats. It is also ushering in Timmy Chang, who is the career passing yards record-holder at Hawai’i but has no head coaching experience. And his first game is against an SEC team.

Vanderbilt is favored by six points and kickoff starts at 10:30 p.m. ET. Yikes.

Could there be too much distracting aloha for these Southern boys? Is Hawai’i in a total rebuild this year? Can both things be true?

Winner: Vanderbilt and Hawai’i for scheduling this game.

USC and UCLA to the Big Ten: The Aftermath

The deal is done. The ink is dry. The Pac-12 has officially acknowledged that the Trojans and Bruins are going to the Big Ten in 2024. It’s like being a parent and watching your 18-year old child leave on a date with someone you clearly think is not in your child’s best interest.

“They can do better,” you try to convince yourself. But they really can’t.

USC and UCLA are leaving their Lincoln Navigator for a Bentley Continental GT. Leaving a $20 million dollar annual payout for a $100 million payout. Leaving half-empty stadiums for stadiums filled with 114,000 screaming fans. Instead of only being able to afford penny stocks, AMZN is now in their portfolios.

Forty-eight hours after the big news broke, the Pac-12 Networks was airing the 2004 Rose Bowl game between USC and Michigan. USC v Penn State followed. The chyron (news ticker) below the game displaying the conference’s statement on the two teams’ departure announcement was the elephant in the room.

In all likelihood, the conference’s flagship network failed to be proactive in television programming.

Failed to be proactive.

It’s an indictment of everything that is wrong in the Pac-12. The conference did not read the room while the SEC and Big Ten were expanding. It failed to protect its future and failed to implement its contingencies.

The conference was rife with poor officiating for a decade. #Pac12refs became a national punchline and Twitter trending hashtag. The Pac-12 made some overtures to fix the problem but no substantial changes could be seen on the field.

The Pac-12 conference is probably now in full-blown panic mode. Undoubtedly phone calls are being made, hands are being wrung, pearl necklaces are being clutched and safe spaces are being constructed in the halls of the Pac-12 offices.

Meanwhile, other Pac-12 members are probably freaking out.

While Oregon and Washington are the next best Pac-12 teams to be considered in a possible departure to another conference, no announcements have been made. While that may not be significant now—once Notre Dame decides its permanent place in college football the dominoes will fall—it will be decidedly concerning after the 2022 season ends.

I believe Stanford and Cal are a better “fit” in the Big Ten. They are traditional schools with high emphasis on education. The Bay Area’s TV market is consistently ranked in the Top 10. They have been consistent in their athletic programs’ branding and except for Stanford’s name change of Indians to Cardinal in 1981, they have very traditional athletic programs.

The Midwest fan is generally not impressed with shiny, new things and unfortunately for the Oregon Ducks, the national perception of Oregon football is just that. This isn’t a criticism. But read the room, Oregon.

The Ohio State University Buckeyes play football in “three yards and a cloud of dust.” They are damn proud of that. Oregon football, on the other hand, is known for innovative twists on run-read football, trick plays, neon-highlighter uniforms and a fan base that while can be quite vociferous, is also fickle.

The flashy electricity of its marketing department has attracted elite recruits. That’s a huge bonus. Oregon also excels in other sports such as Track and Field, Baseball and Basketball. Again, a definite plus.

But would Oregon and Washington’s membership be each worth $100 million a year to the Big Ten?

Seattle’s TV market is ranked No. 14 nationally. Portland’s is ranked No. 81. Moreover, the optics of those two cities may not appeal to the Midwest football fan. Videos of recent riots, surges in crime rates, increasing homelessness and open opioid drug use in the streets have been blasted across news channels for two years. While other cities are experiencing those exact same issues (Los Angeles, I’m looking at you), USC and UCLA will have no problem validating their $100 million payouts from the conference.

If Notre Dame decides to move to the Big Ten and the two Pacific Northwest teams are left without an invite, the Pac-12 would feel a little safer. But only for a New York minute. Unless the Pac-12 invites more schools to its conference, the fallout will be catastrophic. The Pacific Northwest teams cannot carry the conference.

A better option would be for the Pac-12 to join the Big 12 and form a super conference, perhaps even adding in the Mountain West. That could alleviate schools’ stability concerns and keep everyone at home.

For awhile.

A chain reaction is inevitable. The Big Ten and SEC will poach more teams—strike that, the best teams— and the demise of the ACC will probably occur sometime after its conference’s grant of rights expire in 2035-36.

Make no mistake, the Pac-12 is on life support right now. The Big 12 is heavily sedated despite adding four new schools to the mix next year. The ACC is in a bind.

Notre Dame’s contract with the ACC created an additional $80 million in revenue for the conference in 2020-21. The ACC will fight like hell to keep Notre Dame tied to its contract but the Fighting Irish can leverage their position to the breaking point, then skip on over to the Big Ten once it irons out its AAU accreditation.

Notre Dame, despite being roundly criticized and mocked for maintaining its independent status in college football, is now an orchestra conductor. It raises its baton and on cue, everyone looks up and waits for their direction.

Notre Dame can write its own ticket to the dance. Everyone wants to date her. Everyone wants to keep her in their arms and promenade her around the dance floor. It’s good to be the Belle of the Ball.

The SEC wanted Oklahoma and Texas. The Big Ten wanted USC and UCLA. Which team is really the team that everyone wants now?

Clemson? Florida State? Miami? Oregon? Washington? Utah? Kansas?

It’s Notre Dame.

And we all are just witnesses, waiting to see who will get on their knees and propose to her.