Florida Gators Football – Pigskin Grind

Week 1 College Football: The Glory, the Gore and the Carnage

So… how are we feeling, college football fan?

You still celebrating, USC, Florida State, LSU and Ohio State fan?

Are you still with us, Alabama, Clemson, Texas and U.C.L.A.?

Ahh, week 1. Where delusions of grandeur are born, ugly truths are exposed and Surrender Cobras emerge in less than three hours.

Ain’t Week 1 fun?

The excitement, the trash-talking, the pain, the reality gut punch. The Paul Finebaum Show.

Let’s start with the elephant in the room, shall we?

Alabama fans are shocked. Wait until they discover more losses are coming.

I could tell them that Auburn looks vastly improved, but why kick a dead elephant? I could tell them that their once-upon-a-time, a-long-time-ago-guaranteed-win against Vanderbilt is now a possible two-peat for the ‘Dores. I also could remind them that Wisconsin is still sore at them for that 42-10 beatdown last year.

SEC bonus: Florida, LSU, Mizzou, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and South Carolina are also playing sorta, kinda like world-beaters.

Oh, my.

It was not that long ago when we learned that Alabama had kept its players from hitting the transfer portal in spring. Head coach Kalen DeBoer told—OK… bragged about it—earlier this year. That is a big deal in the fickle and flaky world of NIL.

According to tdalabamamag.com, “Alabama was the only SEC football program to retain its entire roster after the spring.”

Cue the then-excited Tide fans.

Last Wednesday, the Crimson Tide looked unprepared, unfocused and undisciplined against Florida State. Maybe the Tide players dismissed a really pissed-off Seminole team who went 2-10 last year. Here’s a thought; maybe the ‘Noles are better? Florida State 31 Alabama 17.

Cue the now-apoplectic Tide fans.

Alabama has so much talent that one of two things will most likely happen.

1— the talent wakes up and realizes it cannot be a slacker just because former head coach Nick Saban is not there to dish out some criticism, laser death stares and f-bombs.

2—the talent leaves after four games and enters the transfer portal looking for love (hello, Oxford, Mississippi!) in a new place.

The third option, terminating head coach Kalen DeBoer’s contract, will not happen. There are $70 million reasons why a buyout will not be considered at this point in the season.

Yes, Texas A&M paid $77.5 million to give Jimbo Fisher the boot, but it only did so after giving Fisher almost six full seasons as the Aggies head coach. DeBoer has coached only one game in his second season.

If, however, Alabama struggles against Louisiana-Monroe this Saturday, ignore my option 3 analysis. And welcome to Westwood, Coach DeBoer. (more on that later)

Texas has a different problem. Losing 14-7 to Ohio State may not reflect badly to pollsters at the end of the season. It was only a one-score loss, after all. Not everyone watched that game, did they?

OK, maybe [gulp] Heisman voters did.

Quarterback Arch Manning performed as well as a sea lion playing chess. He looked completely overwhelmed, confused and ill-prepared for the enormity of this contest. In other words, he looked like a typical, inexperienced starting quarterback in a big game.

The media and Texas fans created this Manning hype. Preseason Heisman favorite? Number 1 NFL Draft pick?

Based on what?

Two starts last year? Against Louisiana-Monroe, who went 5-7 last season and has not sniffed a bowl game berth since 2012? Against Mississippi State, whose two wins last season came against Eastern Kentucky and UMass?

Leave Manning alone. And blame yourselves for thinking you can prognosticate. It has been forever since the media has gotten anything right in the preseason.

But carry on with the disappointed Longhorn fan memes and the upside-down Longhorn hand signs. Nobody loves schadenfreude more than a college football fan seeing an elite school go down in a blaze of bovine dung.

Speaking of animal excrement, the U.C.L.A Bruins laid another deuce in the Rose Bowl.

Again.

The Bruins offensive line looked as stout as an emu, the defense was more forgiving than a bungee cord and the rushing game was less productive than a sloth on Ambien.

How much more pain will Bruin fans endure? Seriously. Their football program is in shambles.

The Big Ten media picked the Bruins to finish fourth-from-the-bottom in the conference ahead of the Maryland Terrapins, Northwestern Wildcats and Purdue Boilermakers. The only two Big Ten teams to lose their season openers were the Bruins (Utah) and the Wildcats (Tulane).

Hats off to the Big Ten media. They knew.

So far.

This disaster should not fall on head coach DeShaun Foster. When he was hired last season, he had zero coaching experience. Not just head coach experience. Any coaching experience. Zilch. Nada. Jack Squat.

High-salaried coaches do not always translate to a high-yield of wins but they do show a high level of interest and value. Or confidence. With a salary of around $3.25 million, Foster will probably struggle in the Big Ten.

The Bruins could demand that Foster be terminated. But there are currently two things preventing that.

First, there has to be enough fans to demand change.

The Rose Bowl had an announced attendance of 35,302 on Saturday, but scanned attendance was 27, 785. U.C.L.A. counts, according the Sports Business Journal, “non-ticketed and credentialed individuals such as players, coaches, staff, vendors, cheerleaders, band members, performers and even media.”

Gah.

Second, there should be a coach-in-waiting if termination is in the cards. Los Angeles has been a tough sell. A family of four’s $121,000 yearly salary is considered poverty level. The median home price is $1.1 million. It is very expensive to live in the Golden (cough) State.

Unless U.C.L.A. presents itself as a serious contender (in other words, paying a head coach over $7 million a year) in its potential coaching search, it will either hire retreads, has-beens or inexperienced coaches. Because that is what $3 million a year gets you in a Power 5 conference.

Chris Petersen, Urban Meyer or Jimbo Fisher ain’t walking through their front door. Perhaps DeBoer will get a nice invite and hostess gift?

So much for the gore. Now for some glory.

Vanderbilt is my sleeper in the SEC. Why? For one, it is finally behaving like an SEC team. It smoked Charleston-Southern 45-3 in its home opener and quarterback Diego Pavia’s brothers got into some trouble with the po-po after the game.

S-E-C! S-E-C!

USC, Florida and Missouri were impressive in their openers. USC beat Missouri State 73-14, Florida beat Long Island University 55-0 and Missouri beat Central Arkansas 61-6.

OK, I know… I know.

They all were playing cupcakes. But if you’re going to schedule a cupcake then beat the frosting off it. Do what is expected of you—complete dominance in an every-player-gets-to-play victory.

Barely beating a cupcake is almost as bad as losing. You scheduled a lower-tiered team and paid them bunches of dough to get their asses handed to them on a platter. Either serve it up or shut up. Do not be an Indiana (won 27-14 v Old Dominion) or Wake Forest (won 10-9 v Kennesaw State).

Be a T.C.U.

Ruining Bill Belichick’s college football home opener and coaching debut by wining 48-14 is almost as good as devouring a cupcake in one bite. No, wait. It is better.

This is the first time I’ve seen Belichick confused and Horned Frogs coach Sonny Dykes smirk at the same time. At times, Belichick appeared to be distracted.

One wonders… by what?

With Notre Dame and U.C.L.A. both losing, USC had its first Perfect Day of the season. It happened technically over a weekend, but the sentiment still applies.

It was a damn Perfect Day (ish).

LSU is suddenly in the position to trash-talk Alabama. November 8 will not be the Game of the Century. But it will be the day more alcohol is consumed than any other day this year.

There will be some upsets or underdog spread covers in week 2. Here are my games to watch:

Mizzou v Kansas +6.5 (This is my last cup of Kool-aid. Swear!)

Vanderbilt +2 at Va Tech (side bet: Pavia strikes the pose)

Mississippi State +6.5 v Arizona State (umm, there is no “dry heat” in Starkvegas)

Duke +3 v Illinois (the most Duke-thing ever is upsetting a ranked Illini team)

Miami (OH) +15 at Rutgers (a MAC team gave Rutgers a hard time last week so…)

U.C.L.A. at UNLV +2.5 (if the Bruins’ D stays home, the Bruins may have a shot here)

Baylor +2.5 at SMU (Bears are better than the experts think. Also, Big XII chaos in Week 2 is par for the course, isn’t it?)

UConn +6.5 at Syracuse (I’m all in on head coach Jim Mora)

Let’s continue the carnage going into Week 3.

Florida v Georgia: Did DJ Lagway’s Injury Derail the Lane Train?

JACKSONVILLE, Fl.—Never underestimate the emotions of a tormented football fan. Especially in the SEC.

On Saturday, Florida entered its rivalry game against Georgia for the 102nd time. This time, the Gators were 16-point underdogs to the Bulldogs. All signs pointed to a beatdown by Georgia and a renewed interest in testing the combustibility of Gator head coach Billy Napier’s skivvies.

Would Napier get canned if Florida lost? Would Napier get canned if the Gators made the loss respectable? Would Napier get canned even if the Gators won?

Billy Napier credit: Brian Estes Photos

OK, to spare any more suspense… would, no wait….will… Napier get 86’d?

So far, Napier is safe. In just his third season at Florida, he has not had the opportunity to coach a team with all of his recruits. The injury bug has also hit the team hard this season.

Those extenuating circumstances could be enough to keep his job for another year.

A contingent of Florida’s fan base is not thrilled about that. These fans are impatient. These fans want change. These fans do not like the direction in which the team is heading.

What ever happened to the retention standard of “four years in” before talking about coaching changes?

How much a current coach’s buyout clause is worth (Napier’s is $25.67 million if he is terminated after the 2024 season) compiled with the quality of coaches available to hire are the usual deciding factors in terminating a coach’s contract.

But there may be a another reason why some schools are not waiting four or five years to make a coaching change.

The Gators are in serious danger of not getting bowl eligible with six wins. A road trip at No. 5 Texas [gulp] plus two home games against No. 14 LSU and No. 16 Ole Miss [gulp] await. Realistically, the Gators’ hope of a bowl bid lies on their date with a 1-8 pissed off Florida State on November 30.

A loss to the Seminoles changes everything.

Missing postseason play hurts a team’s recruiting. And its booster donations.

Some donors may refrain from digging into their fat wallets when a team is bass fishing instead of playing in New Year’s Six bowl. That could impact future NIL collectives’ reserves, aka money to lure potential recruits.

“Donor-driven NIL collectives will make up 80% of all NIL dollars spent in college football this season,” according to On3.com’s report.

Two Florida schools have the Top 15 NIL collectives. The University of Florida is not one of those schools. Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri, Texas A&M, Alabama and Arkansas are among the Top 15.

Money talks. Mediocrity walks.

The word on the mean streets of Gainesville is that Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin is coveted by many green, scaly-skinned fans.

The Kiffin supporters, aka Kiff-ettes, want to book the Lane Train and ride off into the sunset with him and his mastery of trolling, deep balls and trick plays. Of course, that would leave another Kiffin-coached team scorned.

Hell hath no fury, eh Ole Miss? Tennessee? USC?

Anyway, all Florida had to do was lose (big) to Georgia to get the Lane Train rolling down the tracks. This seemed like an easy task at hand. Again, the Gators were 16-point underdogs. Cue the train conductor.

Piece. Of. Cake.

But like everything Florida this year, the Gators are an enigma.

Midway through the second quarter, Florida was up 10-3. The Lane Train talk had subsided.

DJ Lagway credit: Brian Estes Photos

Then true freshman sensation quarterback DJ Lagway was carted off the field after a “significant” hamstring injury, according to Napier. The oxygen got sucked out of the stadium—well, at least half of it—faster than a hot dog getting shot out of a cannon.

DJ Lagway credit: Brian Estes Photos

But wait. The Gators scored a touchdown and extended their lead 13-6.

Maybe…?

credit: Brian Estes Photos

Nah.

Florida could not get its offense rolling under third-string redshirt freshman Aidan Warner.

The playcalling was more than safe for the Yale transfer. It was bubble wrapped—a lot of hand-offs, an occasional deep throw and some short, play actions that got blown up by Georgia’s defenders.

Midway through the fourth quarter, Florida, down 20-13, willed itself down the field and into the red zone after a hands-to-the-face penalty by Georgia linebacker Damon Wilson II. A subsequent holding call by Florida negated that gift.

Of course.

And then, a November miracle, albeit temporary, happened. Florida’s Ja’Kobi Jackson waltzed into the endzone, after a whiff by Daniel Harris, and the game was tied up 20-20 with 7:29 left in regulation.

Everything after that touchdown was just awful for Gator fans.

Or was it?

Therein lies the dilemma for every football fan that wants a coaching change. Are you happy for the win, especially in a rivalry game, or are you happy for the loss and a (possible) change of leadership?

The end does not justify the means, does it? It is like an author of a novel winning an award for “how not to write a novel.” Do you really celebrate this?

For Gator fans, going 11-14 in the last two years is cringy. Currently at 4-4, things are not okey-dokey in Gainesville.

They are inky-stinky.

In week six, starting quarterback Graham Mertz had a career-ending knee injury (ACL) after he threw for a touchdown giving the Gators a 10-0 lead over the Tennessee Volunteers. The Gators would lose that game in overtime, 23-17.

Two weeks later, Lagway went out with a hamstring injury when the Gators were up 13-6. The Gators eventually lost on Saturday, 34-20.

credit: Brian Estes Photos

“I mean, [it] never comes down to just one play,” Napier said in his post-game interview.

“We probably played 180 plays out there today and there were multiple opportunities for us to get it done.”

Now on his third starting quarterback, sympathy for Napier abounds as he prepares for the Texas Longhorns. Yet, he is focused on supporting Warner and the team as they limp to Austin.

And what about getting “snakebit” by injuries?

Graham Mertz credit: Brian Estes Photos

“No, I don’t believe in… that,” Napier said.

“Always been injuries in this game. Every team in the country has injuries. One thing I can say is we built a roster that has some competitive depth and that’s proved to be beneficial.

You play in this league, the level of competition, the explosive players, height, length, and speed of the game, physicality of this game, you’re always going to need depth.”

A coach that does not repine on injuries?

That is refreshing as hell.

A coach who does not embrace moral victories?

Hip hip, hooray!

A coach that does not believe any one play costs a team a game?

Priceless.

The calls for “all aboard” the Lane Train have quieted.

For now.

Lagway’s injury may have been the final nail in Florida’s coffin. But it may also have given the under-construction “Legend of Napier” new meaning.

And life.

UPDATE: Lagway’s injury does not appear to be as serious as once thought. At a press conference Monday, Napier made these comments:

“The good news is we’ve had positive information on that front. That is the positive there. We do think that injury is less significant. We do think there’s a pathway for recovery and a return. We did find that out yesterday evening. So a lot of good on that front.

So less significant than we anticipated, and he’s been doing well so far this morning. We have not completely ruled him out, and I think a lot of that will be to be determined as we move our way throughout the week. So that’s a good thing for all involved and certainly for DJ.”