Week 1 College Football: The Glory, the Gore and the Carnage

So… how are we feeling, college football fan?

You still celebrating, USC, Florida State, LSU and Ohio State fan?

Are you still with us, Alabama, Clemson, Texas and U.C.L.A.?

Ahh, week 1. Where delusions of grandeur are born, ugly truths are exposed and Surrender Cobras emerge in less than three hours.

Ain’t Week 1 fun?

The excitement, the trash-talking, the pain, the reality gut punch. The Paul Finebaum Show.

Let’s start with the elephant in the room, shall we?

Alabama fans are shocked. Wait until they discover more losses are coming.

I could tell them that Auburn looks vastly improved, but why kick a dead elephant? I could tell them that their once-upon-a-time, a-long-time-ago-guaranteed-win against Vanderbilt is now a possible two-peat for the ‘Dores. I also could remind them that Wisconsin is still sore at them for that 42-10 beatdown last year.

SEC bonus: Florida, LSU, Mizzou, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and South Carolina are also playing sorta, kinda like world-beaters.

Oh, my.

It was not that long ago when we learned that Alabama had kept its players from hitting the transfer portal in spring. Head coach Kalen DeBoer told—OK… bragged about it—earlier this year. That is a big deal in the fickle and flaky world of NIL.

According to tdalabamamag.com, “Alabama was the only SEC football program to retain its entire roster after the spring.”

Cue the then-excited Tide fans.

Last Wednesday, the Crimson Tide looked unprepared, unfocused and undisciplined against Florida State. Maybe the Tide players dismissed a really pissed-off Seminole team who went 2-10 last year. Here’s a thought; maybe the ‘Noles are better? Florida State 31 Alabama 17.

Cue the now-apoplectic Tide fans.

Alabama has so much talent that one of two things will most likely happen.

1— the talent wakes up and realizes it cannot be a slacker just because former head coach Nick Saban is not there to dish out some criticism, laser death stares and f-bombs.

2—the talent leaves after four games and enters the transfer portal looking for love (hello, Oxford, Mississippi!) in a new place.

The third option, terminating head coach Kalen DeBoer’s contract, will not happen. There are $70 million reasons why a buyout will not be considered at this point in the season.

Yes, Texas A&M paid $77.5 million to give Jimbo Fisher the boot, but it only did so after giving Fisher almost six full seasons as the Aggies head coach. DeBoer has coached only one game in his second season.

If, however, Alabama struggles against Louisiana-Monroe this Saturday, ignore my option 3 analysis. And welcome to Westwood, Coach DeBoer. (more on that later)

Texas has a different problem. Losing 14-7 to Ohio State may not reflect badly to pollsters at the end of the season. It was only a one-score loss, after all. Not everyone watched that game, did they?

OK, maybe [gulp] Heisman voters did.

Quarterback Arch Manning performed as well as a sea lion playing chess. He looked completely overwhelmed, confused and ill-prepared for the enormity of this contest. In other words, he looked like a typical, inexperienced starting quarterback in a big game.

The media and Texas fans created this Manning hype. Preseason Heisman favorite? Number 1 NFL Draft pick?

Based on what?

Two starts last year? Against Louisiana-Monroe, who went 5-7 last season and has not sniffed a bowl game berth since 2012? Against Mississippi State, whose two wins last season came against Eastern Kentucky and UMass?

Leave Manning alone. And blame yourselves for thinking you can prognosticate. It has been forever since the media has gotten anything right in the preseason.

But carry on with the disappointed Longhorn fan memes and the upside-down Longhorn hand signs. Nobody loves schadenfreude more than a college football fan seeing an elite school go down in a blaze of bovine dung.

Speaking of animal excrement, the U.C.L.A Bruins laid another deuce in the Rose Bowl.

Again.

The Bruins offensive line looked as stout as an emu, the defense was more forgiving than a bungee cord and the rushing game was less productive than a sloth on Ambien.

How much more pain will Bruin fans endure? Seriously. Their football program is in shambles.

The Big Ten media picked the Bruins to finish fourth-from-the-bottom in the conference ahead of the Maryland Terrapins, Northwestern Wildcats and Purdue Boilermakers. The only two Big Ten teams to lose their season openers were the Bruins (Utah) and the Wildcats (Tulane).

Hats off to the Big Ten media. They knew.

So far.

This disaster should not fall on head coach DeShaun Foster. When he was hired last season, he had zero coaching experience. Not just head coach experience. Any coaching experience. Zilch. Nada. Jack Squat.

High-salaried coaches do not always translate to a high-yield of wins but they do show a high level of interest and value. Or confidence. With a salary of around $3.25 million, Foster will probably struggle in the Big Ten.

The Bruins could demand that Foster be terminated. But there are currently two things preventing that.

First, there has to be enough fans to demand change.

The Rose Bowl had an announced attendance of 35,302 on Saturday, but scanned attendance was 27, 785. U.C.L.A. counts, according the Sports Business Journal, “non-ticketed and credentialed individuals such as players, coaches, staff, vendors, cheerleaders, band members, performers and even media.”

Gah.

Second, there should be a coach-in-waiting if termination is in the cards. Los Angeles has been a tough sell. A family of four’s $121,000 yearly salary is considered poverty level. The median home price is $1.1 million. It is very expensive to live in the Golden (cough) State.

Unless U.C.L.A. presents itself as a serious contender (in other words, paying a head coach over $7 million a year) in its potential coaching search, it will either hire retreads, has-beens or inexperienced coaches. Because that is what $3 million a year gets you in a Power 5 conference.

Chris Petersen, Urban Meyer or Jimbo Fisher ain’t walking through their front door. Perhaps DeBoer will get a nice invite and hostess gift?

So much for the gore. Now for some glory.

Vanderbilt is my sleeper in the SEC. Why? For one, it is finally behaving like an SEC team. It smoked Charleston-Southern 45-3 in its home opener and quarterback Diego Pavia’s brothers got into some trouble with the po-po after the game.

S-E-C! S-E-C!

USC, Florida and Missouri were impressive in their openers. USC beat Missouri State 73-14, Florida beat Long Island University 55-0 and Missouri beat Central Arkansas 61-6.

OK, I know… I know.

They all were playing cupcakes. But if you’re going to schedule a cupcake then beat the frosting off it. Do what is expected of you—complete dominance in an every-player-gets-to-play victory.

Barely beating a cupcake is almost as bad as losing. You scheduled a lower-tiered team and paid them bunches of dough to get their asses handed to them on a platter. Either serve it up or shut up. Do not be an Indiana (won 27-14 v Old Dominion) or Wake Forest (won 10-9 v Kennesaw State).

Be a T.C.U.

Ruining Bill Belichick’s college football home opener and coaching debut by wining 48-14 is almost as good as devouring a cupcake in one bite. No, wait. It is better.

This is the first time I’ve seen Belichick confused and Horned Frogs coach Sonny Dykes smirk at the same time. At times, Belichick appeared to be distracted.

One wonders… by what?

With Notre Dame and U.C.L.A. both losing, USC had its first Perfect Day of the season. It happened technically over a weekend, but the sentiment still applies.

It was a damn Perfect Day (ish).

LSU is suddenly in the position to trash-talk Alabama. November 8 will not be the Game of the Century. But it will be the day more alcohol is consumed than any other day this year.

There will be some upsets or underdog spread covers in week 2. Here are my games to watch:

Mizzou v Kansas +6.5 (This is my last cup of Kool-aid. Swear!)

Vanderbilt +2 at Va Tech (side bet: Pavia strikes the pose)

Mississippi State +6.5 v Arizona State (umm, there is no “dry heat” in Starkvegas)

Duke +3 v Illinois (the most Duke-thing ever is upsetting a ranked Illini team)

Miami (OH) +15 at Rutgers (a MAC team gave Rutgers a hard time last week so…)

U.C.L.A. at UNLV +2.5 (if the Bruins’ D stays home, the Bruins may have a shot here)

Baylor +2.5 at SMU (Bears are better than the experts think. Also, Big XII chaos in Week 2 is par for the course, isn’t it?)

UConn +6.5 at Syracuse (I’m all in on head coach Jim Mora)

Let’s continue the carnage going into Week 3.

College Football: Week Two’s Upset Specials

Oh, they’re coming. Prepare your livers.

With one week (technically two) of college football in the books many fans may be feeling confident. This week’s slate will have you reaching for the Tums. Or Fireball.

Pigskin Grind has five—count ’em, five—games that will have the favorites going down in flames. Let the little guys (and the Big Boys, in some cases) celebrate.

There is redemption for all in college football.

New Mexico (-17) vs Boise State

The New Mexico Lobos are calling for a red out in tonight’s game against Boise State. They may have valid reasons for why they can steal this game from Boise State.

Quarterback Hank Bachmeier look rattled against Oregon State last week. Reserve Taylen Green came in and scored on a long touchdown but the Beavers’ defense was just too good and the Broncos went down 34-17.

New Mexico pitched a 41-0 shutout to Maine. Sure, the Black Bears are an FCS team, but it was still a rout. The Lobos looked good in their season opener and Boise State is 0-1 on the road.

Pittsburgh +6 vs Tennessee

Pitt had a tough time putting West Virginia away in the Backyard Brawl last week, surviving 38-31. Head coach Pat Narduzzi is an underrated coach who will have the team laser focused on the Vols. The Panthers are battle-tested. If quarterback Kedon Slovis can look off his receivers instead of telegraphing his passes, Pitt should upset the Vols.

Tennessee drilled Ball State at home 59-10 and looked good against a mid-tier MAC team. Last year Tennessee lost to Pitt 41-34 at home, despite “Rocky Top” serenades from its fans. This year Heinz Field will be “touching me, touching you” throughout the game.

UNLV +13 at Cal

This is nothing personal against Cal, but the Golden Bears looked terrible in their 34-13 victory against UC Davis. With only eight starters returning, the Bears are in total rebuilding mode and UNLV will be taking advantage of the inexperience and youth.

The Rebels beat Idaho State 52-21 last week. So while both teams played FCS teams, one team did not have a problem routing its opponent and another one did. We’re not betting on UNLV, we’re betting against Cal.

Vanderbilt +13.5 vs Wake Forest

The Commodores (2-10 last year) travelled all day to Hawai’i in week zero and beat the Warriors senseless, 63-10. Last week they beat Elon 42-31. Vanderbilt is currently in first place in the SEC East. How pumped up is Vanderbilt right now?

Meanwhile, Wake Forest has to travel to SEC Country and take on the Commodores, a team it is probably not taking too seriously. Oh yeah, this one is going to be fun to watch.

Baylor +3 at BYU

This could be the Game of the Week. It should be very close (which is why you should take the points) but I like Baylor to eke out a win here. BYU has a veteran team (19 returning starters) and the weather forecast looks perfect for an air show.

Baylor beat No. 19 BYU last year 38-24 (the spread was Baylor-5) so head coach Dave Aranda has the formula to beat BYU. This game will be played in a hostile environment and unlike last year, the Cougars are relatively healthy.

The Hunger Games

There are an additional two games you should consider for all the wrong reasons.

Kentucky +6.5 at Florida is an interesting game just because the Gators are feeling super cocky and Kentucky just loves to rain on everyone’s parade as an underdog.

Appalachian State +19.5 at Texas A&M does not need much explanation here. The Mountaineers almost pulled off a huge upset against North Carolina, losing 63-61. If their defense can figure out how to cut points allowed by 50 percent, they have a shot of humiliating Jimbo Fisher at home.

College Football: Week Zero (yes, that is a thing) Games and Predictions

Nobody knows nothin’.

You’ve heard that before but nowhere is that truer than in predicting winners and losers in the first week of college football.

It is a crap shoot. It is a forage into unknown waters. Go ahead, dip your toes in the water. Circling dorsal fins be damned, you still dive in.

Back in the day, college football’s opening week was a lot of cupcakes getting destroyed by a lot of heavyweights. Thankfully, we are starting to see more “interesting” matchups in week zero. Surrounded by fluffy, frosted cupcakes.

Back to the interesting games, though.

OK, not really. Most of the games stink. But it is college football and we are going to bask in all of its glory. And gore.

Naturally, there will be an upset. Or two.

courtesy of TheScore.com

Who can forget Appalachian State’s epic upset of Michigan in 2007? After all, this is for what we, the college football fans, full of merriment and schadenfreude, live. Complete and utter chaos raining down on college football’s landscape.

May the team with the least amount of mistakes and SNAFUs win.

Nevada at New Mexico State

This one will be entertaining. But not for the reasons you think. Nevada has a total of six returning starters: two on offense, four on defense.

New Mexico State is breaking in a new coach (Jerry Kill of Minnesota fame) and its roster depth includes walk-ons. It only has two starters on its offense as well.

On paper, this looks like a low-scoring game or a high-scoring game, depending on which units show up to play. A true feast for the college football fan awaits. First team to 10 (or 50) points, wins.

Winner: Nevada

courtesy of NYTimes.com

Austin Peay at Western Kentucky

The Hilltoppers will have an inexperienced offense taking on Austin Peay, an FCS team. What does that mean?

Quarterback Bailey Zappe was the heart of Western Kentucky’s offense. Zappe (New England Patriots) and Offensive Coordinator Zach Kittley (Texas Tech) are both gone. While there are excellent reports on quarterback Austin Reed, this game will have a lot mistakes and mental errors.

Note: this 9:00 a.m. game will be competing against FOXSports’ 9:30 a.m. broadcast of Nebraska v Northwestern in Ireland.

Winner: Western Kentucky

Nebraska v Northwestern (Dublin, Ireland)

Nebraska fans should have their gastroenterologists on speed dial in case their ulcers flare up earlier than usual.

The Cornhuskers have only won two of their last five season openers. That statistic by itself is not much to chew on but it is a symptom of something more ominous—Nebraska has also not had a winning system since 2016.

Northwestern has won three of their last five season openers. Although Nebraska is a 12.5 point favorite, I’m calling for the Wildcat upset here.

Winner: Northwestern

courtesy of IrishCentral.com

Idaho State at UNLV

UNLV should have this game under control by the third quarter. Idaho State is an FCS school and while there are some terrific FCS programs capable of pulling an upset every week, Idaho State is not at the elite level.

Winner: UNLV

UConn at Utah State

This is a very dangerous game for Jim Mora’s Utah State. The Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama the following week. Will Utah State be looking ahead? Count on it, especially when facing a team like UConn.

The Huskies have won four games in three years and the last time it beat a Power 5 team was in 2016 (Virginia). They have only beaten three Group of Five teams in that same time period. Can you spell T-R-A-P?

Utah State is favored by 27.5 points. The Aggies should win by that much but it is week one and anything can happen.

Winner: Utah State (?)

Wyoming at Illinois

Wyoming has eight returning starters, four on each side of the ball. True, we do not know much yet but we do know what a lot of opportunity for improvement means: rebuilding mode.

Illinois has 13 returning starters. Despite last year’s 5-7 season, the Fighting Illini pulled off three major upsets (Nebraska -7, Penn State -24 and Minnesota -14). Ilinois is a favorite (-11) and head coach Bret Bielema will have his guys ready.

Winner: Illinois

courtesy of USAToday.com

Duquesne at Florida State

Remember when we could count on the Seminoles to annihilate its non-conference opponents? Now they are dependable as a wet book of matches.

Last year the Seminoles lost to FCS’s Jacksonville State 20-17. Ouch. The Seminoles struggled to beat Samford (not Stanford) in 2018 (36-26) and lost to Boise State (36-31) in 2019’s season opener.

Florida State has been playing flaky football for at least five years despite rosters riddled with elite players. This should be a blow out by the first half but do not be shocked if Duquesne is still hanging around in the third quarter.

Winner: Florida State

Charlotte at Florida Atlantic

In the last five years, the Owls have had two 11-win seasons. This program is capable and trending up. Head coach Willie Taggert has a lot of veterans returning (14!) and FAU has won its last three meetings with Charlotte.

But Charlotte tends to play up to the level of its opponents. Last year it lost to Duke by three points, Middle Tennessee State by three and Illinois by 10. The Owls are favored by 7.5 points and that sounds about right, especially since the 49ers have to travel to Boca Raton.

Winner: FAU

Florida A&M at North Carolina

This may be the perfect game for the Tar Heels to prove they belong in the Big Ten or SEC. The ACC may be relatively safe from conference expansion for now but things may become very unstable in a few years. Or next week.

Despite a reloaded offense with some unproven skill players, I expect North Carolina to keep this game out of reach from FAMU.

Winner: North Carolina

North Texas at UTEP

This game may be among the day’s most competitive match-ups. North Texas is favored by two points in this interstate rivalry. The battle should be tightly contested and an overtime thriller is a definite possibility. We can dream, can’t we?

The underdog is “5-2 with three straight upsets,” according to Phil Steele. UTEP for the mild upset?

UTEP for the mild upset.

Winner: UTEP

Courtesy of Getty Images/stockphoto

Vanderbilt at Hawaii

A non-stop, direct flight from Nashville to Honolulu is over eight hours. The typical flight from Nashville to Honolulu is more like 12-13 hours total flight time. Vandy is going to be exhausted on game day.

But we have a plot twist….

Hawai’i has only six starters returning and is playing in a temporary stadium that holds 9,000 butts in seats. It is also ushering in Timmy Chang, who is the career passing yards record-holder at Hawai’i but has no head coaching experience. And his first game is against an SEC team.

Vanderbilt is favored by six points and kickoff starts at 10:30 p.m. ET. Yikes.

Could there be too much distracting aloha for these Southern boys? Is Hawai’i in a total rebuild this year? Can both things be true?

Winner: Vanderbilt and Hawai’i for scheduling this game.